I’ve posted on Iran quite a few times over the past few years, usually lamenting the Christopher Nolan Momento-ish feel to the whole situation. However, I think articles like Why We’re Not Going to War with Iran, that touch on the same observation, are flawed. Sure, it’s Bill Murray’s Groundhog Day with the Iranian nuclear crisis, but even Groundhog Day comes to an end.

There was great librarian at The Library of Congress I used to see every few months, and he’d always tell the story of the blind men trying to describe an elephant. One would grab its tail, one would grab its trunk, one would wrap his arms around a leg, and the last man would grab its stomach. Of course, each blind man had a completely different take on how to best describe an elephant, and they were all essentially wrong. Likewise, what’s going on in Iran is much bigger than we think. It requires commentators to step far back to have a fighting chance at predicting the end game.

Wars don’t happen over night. Liberals tried to make it sound like that’s what happened with the Iraq War, but it didn’t. The build-up lasted years, even if many of us don’t want to admit it. In the internet age, our ability to accurately read events on a lengthened timelines has atrophied. We can’t see wars forming in slow motion on the horizon and stop them, and when they do begin we expect them wrapped up like a 30 minute television show. It doesn’t work that way.

Right now Leon Panetta is on record as saying he thinks there is a “strong likelihood” Israel will strike in April, May or June. Cable news is covering the play-by-play, but what matters is the trajectory we’re on. And the trajectory clear.

Movies that star Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in place of Bill Murray don’t end well, and one of the sad footnotes to this story is that there are people who are paid a ridiculous amount of money to know that…who don’t.

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About the Author Douglas Ernst

I'm a former Army guy who believes success comes through hard work, honesty, optimism, and perseverance. I believe seeing yourself as a victim creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. I believe in God. I'm a USC Trojan with an MA in Political Science from American University.

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